000
WTPZ43 KNHC 292037
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
 
ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE CRISTINA HAS BECOME
INTERMITTENTLY PARTLY EXPOSED DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR...THE CYCLONE INSISTS UPON REMAINING AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH.  AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. 
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HOLDS AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND
ICON MODELS.  CRISTINA IS MOVING WITHIN A DRYER MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A STRENGTHENING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE EVOLVING LARGE SCALE
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 14.4N 128.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 14.2N 129.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.1N 131.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 14.0N 134.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 14.0N 136.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 14.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 14.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/1800Z 14.0N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA