000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290245
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
 
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CRISTINA HAS MAINTAINED
TIGHT BANDING AND MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...WHILE A CIMSS MICROWAVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT 50
KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.

CRISTINA'S CURRENT MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS
BEING STEERED BY A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS
NORTHEAST.  THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF
TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT...CAUSING A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.  BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SHOULD BE STEERED DUE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH UNREALISTICALLY HAS CRISTINA BECOME
STATIONARY AND THEN ABSORBED BY BORIS.

DESPITE THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF CRISTINA DURING THE DAY...IT
IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. IN
FACT...THE LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES.  THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE QUITE MARGINAL WITH SSTS
AT 26C NOW AND COOLING TO 24C IN TWO DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 14.9N 126.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 127.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 14.8N 131.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 14.6N 133.2W    35 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N 141.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/RHOME