000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281437
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1018Z NOAA-18 AMSU-B MICROWAVE
OVERPASS REVEAL IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND AN EARLIER 0358Z QUIKSCAT PASS
THAT DEPICTED A FEW BELIEVABLE 35 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT...THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM.  FURTHER
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS CRISTINA CONTINUES TO
MOVE WITHIN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND OVER COOLER WATER WITHIN
THE 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NORTH OF CRISTINA IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW FILLING AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...A
TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH A
BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 14.4N 124.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 14.7N 125.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 127.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N 129.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.0N 131.4W    30 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 143.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN