000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010835
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
200 AM PDT WED AUG 01 2007

MICROWAVE AND MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS PROBABLY STILL NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
35 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS...WITH A LACK OF BANDING FEATURES...
WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ERICK CONTINUES TO
BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE.  DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THEREFORE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS CALLED FOR...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BELOW THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...IT IS ESTIMATED
THAT THE STORM IS CONTINUING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND 9
KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF ERICK
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THEREFORE THE CURRENT MOTION IS LIKELY TO MORE OR LESS BE
MAINTAINED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT FASTER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 13.0N 125.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 13.1N 126.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 13.2N 128.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 13.3N 130.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 132.4W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 13.5N 136.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 13.5N 139.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 13.5N 143.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH