000
WTPZ42 KNHC 100852
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172025
300 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025
 
Raymond is skirting the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Geostationary 
proxy visible satellite imagery shows a partially-exposed 
circulation with a burst of growing convection near the center.  
Despite Raymond's disheveled convective appearance, the storm seems 
to be maintaining a decent surface circulation.  Overnight 
scatterometer data showed the center of Raymond just offshore of 
southwestern Mexico, with wind vectors up to 48 to 50 kt in the 
northern semicircle.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is 
increased to 50 kt.

Strong easterly vertical wind shear and proximity to the Mexican 
coastline should generally limit Raymond's potential to strengthen. 
Most global and regional models plateau the intensity, and gradually 
weaken the tropical storm while it moves toward a drier airmass.  
The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the 
latest intensity increase but still shows gradual weakening through 
the forecast period.  Raymond is still expected to become a remnant 
low over the Gulf of California on Sunday and dissipate shortly 
thereafter.
 
The storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt along the southern 
extent of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.  The high 
pressure system should steer Raymond west-northwestward to 
northwestward during the next day or so.  By the weekend, a 
mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the western United 
States, turning the tropical storm northward and bringing it across 
the Baja California Peninsula.  The latest official forecast has 
shifted slightly to the east, largely due to the eastward shift of 
the initial position, and now lies near the Google DeepMind forecast 
aid.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the watch area along portions of Baja 
California Sur on Saturday.
 
2.  Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal 
sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result 
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 17.4N 103.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 18.7N 105.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 20.5N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 22.2N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 24.3N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 26.5N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci