000
WTPZ42 KNHC 100242
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172025
900 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025
 
A couple of recent microwave overpasses indicate that Raymond's
cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours.
Images show fragmented curved bands surrounding the elongated (SE
to NW) surface circulation.  The cyclone may be struggling a bit
due to the large deep convective complex (-82C cloud tops) located
to the northwest of the center, which could be disrupting the
cyclone's low-level flow.  The subjective and objective technique
intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and a recent UW-CIMSS
SATCON analysis estimated the intensity to be 35 kt.  Using a blend
of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.
 
The statistical-dynamical Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance and the 
global models indicate that Raymond will be battling stiff easterly 
vertical shear during the next couple of days, which should hamper 
significant development.  Subsequently, only modest strengthening is 
forecast through Friday.  Afterward, an increasingly hostile 
thermodynamic environment should result in a weakening trend through 
the period.  Accordingly, Raymond is expected to degenerate to a 
remnant low on Sunday while emerging over the Gulf of California, 
and ultimately opening up into a trough by early next week.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is based on a close agreement of the FSSE, HCCA, 
and IVCN intensity aids.
 
Raymond's center has been difficult to find this evening, and the 
initial motion is an estimated west-northwestward heading, or 290/13 
kt.  A mid-tropospheric high, anchored over northern Mexico, should 
steer Raymond toward the west-northwest to northwest, while 
paralleling and remaining just offshore of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico, through Friday evening.  Afterward, Raymond is forecast to 
turn north-northwestward, then northward in response to an 
amplifying mid-latitude trough moving over the southwestern United 
States.  The various consensus models and the Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean were used as a basis for the official track forecast. 
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday.  Interests in
southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the
system.
 
2.  Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal 
sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result 
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 16.7N 102.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 17.8N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 19.5N 107.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 21.2N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 23.2N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 25.4N 110.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts