000
WTPZ42 KNHC 092041
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172025
300 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025
 
Satellite images and a recent partial ASCAT-C scatterometer pass 
were used to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Raymond at the 
intermediate advisory. Since that time, deep convection continues to 
burst mainly along the western and southern side of the circulation 
with cold cloud tops near -80C. Latest subjective and objective 
estimates range from 30 to 43 kt. Unfortunately, there was a 
scatterometer gap over the much of the system, and no recent 
microwave imagery to gain a better idea of the intensity and 
structure of the system. Using the the previous satellite derived 
winds and the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 
40 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt, 
although this is a little uncertain given the recent formation of 
the center.  A strong mid-level ridge over northern Mexico  will 
steer the system swiftly towards the west-northwest to northwest 
over the next couple of days, with the center paralleling the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will begin to move more 
north-northwestward then northward as it rounds the western 
periphery of the ridge towards the Baja California peninsula. The 
NHC track is near the previous forecast, which lies near the 
consensus aids.
 
Strong easterly shear is expected to displace most of the convection 
over the western semicircle over the next few days, although the 
system will remain over very warm sea surface temperatures near 
29-30C and within a preferable upper-level wind environment. Thus, 
some strengthening is forecast in the short term. In about a day or 
so, drier air and a more stable environment will cause the system to 
start weakening as it approaches Baja California. Global model 
simulated IR imagery shows the system struggling to produce 
organized convection by day 3, with the system becoming 
post-tropical, and ultimately dissipating by day 4.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday.  Interests in
southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the
system.
 
2.  Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal 
sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result 
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 16.5N 101.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 17.3N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 18.9N 106.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 20.6N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 22.5N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 24.8N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 26.8N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly