256 
WTPZ42 KNHC 020856
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025
 
The tropical depression has been relatively steady overnight.  
Periodic bursts of deep convection continue to form over the 
low-level center, with cold cloud tops of less than -80 degrees C. A 
scatterometer pass from 0335 UTC showed a small circulation with 
reliable winds of 30 kt.  The initial intensity is therefore held at 
30 kt, which is also supported by the latest TAFB T2.0 
classification.

The cyclone is still moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the 
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The ridge should soon 
begin to steer the depression generally northwestward for the next 
couple of days.  By the end of the week, the tropical cyclone is 
expected to slow down as it reaches a weakness in the ridge and 
gradually turn northward.  Over the weekend, the depression is 
forecast to turn north-northeastward to northeastward toward the 
Baja California peninsula.  The latest official forecast track 
is west of the previous forecast as a result of an adjustment to 
the initial position reflecting a delay in the northwestward 
turn, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids.  
 
Warm waters and a quiescent, moist atmosphere should allow the 
depression to steadily intensify during the next couple of days. 
The system is still expected to peak just under hurricane strength. 
By day 3, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm 
and experience increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing 
mid-level humidities which should cause gradual weakening.  Little 
changes have been made to the latest intensity forecast.    
 
Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should 
monitor the progress of this system.   A Tropical Storm Watch could 
be required for portions of Baja California later today or 
Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 17.6N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci