000 WTPZ42 KNHC 092052 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and recent scatterometer data indicate that Kay continues to weaken, with maximum winds of about 35 kt that are confined to an area over the Pacific east and northeast of the center. Satellite imagery shows no organized central convection, with the remaining thunderstorms well to the north of the center over southern California. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based on the aircraft and scatterometer data. However, stronger winds enhanced by the mountainous terrain are occuring over portions of southern California. Unless the central convection re-develops, which appears unlikely over sea surface temperatures of 21-22C, Kay should decay to a remnant low tonight with the maximum winds decreasing below 35 kt. The global models are in good agreement that the remnant low will dissipate between 72-96 h, and the official forecast follows this. While Kay is currently moving northwest or 305/10 kt, it is starting its expected turn away from land and should move westward at a slower forward speed during the next 12-24 h. After that, a low-level ridge to the west of the remnant low should steer the system slowly southward and southeastward until it dissipates. There was again little change in the track forecast guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Although Kay's intensity has decreased, wind, surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track of Kay. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall will likely result in flash flooding, including possible landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California, especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and also possible in the Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and southern Nevada. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 31.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 31.4N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1800Z 31.5N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 31.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 30.9N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 30.1N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 29.2N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven