000
WTPZ42 KNHC 280237
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022
 
Deep convection persists to the southwest of the center of Frank 
due to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear.  Cold cloud 
top temperatures currently range between -80 to -90 degrees C and 
the low-level center remains partially exposed.  The initial 
intensity has been nudged up to 45 kt in agreement with subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB.

Global model guidance predicts that the vertical wind shear 
currently reducing the rate of strengthening should subside over the 
tropical storm within the next day.  The relaxation of the shear, 
warm ocean surface waters, and a moist atmospheric environment 
should allow Frank to strengthen more quickly, potentially at a 
rapid rate, between 36-72 h.  The peak intensity of the official 
forecast has been increased slightly to 90 kt at 60 h to reflect 
this possibility.  Beyond 72 h, Frank is expected steadily weaken 
when it moves over cooler waters and into a more stable atmospheric 
environment.

Frank is being steered westward at 10 kt by a subtropical ridge to 
the north.  In a day or so, the storm should gradually turn 
west-northwestward to northwestward along the periphery of the 
weakening ridge through the end of the forecast period.  The latest 
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and 
closest to the dynamical model consensus aid, TVCE. 
 
It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
likely to come close enough to one another to interact.  The global
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 12.7N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 13.0N 109.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 14.3N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 15.2N 114.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 16.3N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 19.8N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 21.9N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch