000 WTPZ42 KNHC 181432 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Blas continues to weaken and is quite disorganized this morning. Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level center with deep convection confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 50 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 4 kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion within the low- to mid-level flow is expected to continue through the middle of next week. The models have trended slower this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be positioned closer to the various consensus aids. Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance. Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should subside tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi