000 WTPZ42 KNHC 161437 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The satellite presentation of Blas in geostationary imagery has not changed much this morning with the center embedded within the northern portion of the central dense overcast. Recent microwave imagery, however, shows that there has been some additional degradation of the inner-core due to moderate east-northeasterly shear. There is a bit more uncertainty than normal in the initial intensity of the hurricane as the subjective Dvorak estimates are on the higher end at 77 and 90 kt, while objective satellite estimates from the ADT and SATCON are lower at 70 and 64 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is kept near a consensus of these estimates at 75 kt. Although the shear is forecast to relax slightly during the next 12-24 hours, the recent degradation of the inner core will likely prevent any further intensification. Therefore, little change in strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning. By 36 hours, Blas is forecast to cross the 26 degree Celsius isotherm which should commence the weakening process. Steady weakening is then anticipated during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas moves into less favorable thermodynamic conditions, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and ICON consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward speed over the next 48-72 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within the lower-level tradewind flow. There is very little cross-track spread among the various dynamical models, but there is some along-track or speed differences with the HWRF, HMON, and GFS much faster than the ECMWF. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory, closer to the latest HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, but additional adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those areas through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.9N 104.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown