000
WTPZ42 KNHC 140849
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021
 
Earlier conventional satellite imagery and a F-17/SSMIS microwave
image revealed some deterioration of Linda's eyewall in the
northwest quadrant, and some cooling of the eye.  However, the
latest few BD-curve enhanced infrared images show a quickly 
developing solid black ring of -69 to -73C temperatures associated 
with Linda's eye wall.  Based on these recent convective trends and 
a special Dvorak satellite intensity classification from TAFB, the 
initial intensity is raised to 110 kt.
 
Little change in strength is expected today, other than some
possible slight fluctuations.  By early Sunday, the hurricane
should be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into a more stable and drier (700-500 mb relative humidity of
about 53 percent) thermodynamic surrounding environment. These
inhibiting conditions are expected to induce a steady weakening
trend through day 3.  Beyond that period, Linda should weaken more
rapidly as it moves over even cooler (sub 24C) oceanic temperatures.
The official intensity forecast is merely an update of the previous
advisory, and is in best agreement with the various multi-model
intensity consensus guidance.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11
kt. The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged.  Linda is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward to westward during
the next couple of days along the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge to the north.  Afterward, the deterministic
models unanimously show the aforementioned ridge establishing
farther west over the eastern Pacific and to the northwest of the
cyclone.  As a result of this altering synoptic steering pattern,
Linda is forecast to turn west-southwestward by early next week.
The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCN and HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach aids and splits the difference between the GFS
and ECMWF solutions beyond day 3.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 18.4N 114.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 19.0N 116.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 19.3N 118.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 19.2N 120.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 18.9N 122.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 18.3N 124.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 18.0N 126.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 18.3N 130.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 19.9N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts