000 WTPZ42 KNHC 142033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Although convective activity has decreased since the previous advisory, good cyclonic rotation is noted in the small convective elements, and an upper-level anticyclone has developed over the low-level center based on weak cirrus outflow now occuring in all quadrants. A fortuitous ship located about 30 nmi west of the center at 1800Z reported a 30-kt northerly wind and 1010.7 mb pressure, which helped to locate the center, and also to estimate the intensity and central pressure of the depression. The initial intensity therefore remains 30 kt, which is supported by a satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and a 1542Z ScatSat pass. The initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The latest model guidance continues the previous motion trend by only moving the cyclone slowly westward to west-southwestward at less than 5 kt for the next few days due to the depression remaining embedded within a break in a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends southwestward from central Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A broad upper-level trough and low located over the southwestern United States is forecast to weaken and lift out slowly to the northeast on days 4 and 5, which will allow the ridge to gradually build westward to the north of the cyclone. This should result in an increase in the easterly flow south of the ridge, helping to nudge the cyclone westward at a slightly faster forward speed. The new NHC forecast track is a little north of the previous advisory track after 48 h, and lies between the consensus models TVCE and HCCA. The cyclone is forecast to be embedded within an environment that is somewhat conducive for at least gradual strengthening to occur. The cyclone's small circulation and a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of only 25-30 nmi would suggest that rapid intensification could occur since the wind shear is expected to decrease to around 5 kt after 36 hours. However, proximity to land is expected to continue to disrupt the outer circulation and also create downslope conditions off the coastal mountains, which will produce occasional intrusions of dry air. The result is that only modest strengthening is forecast for the next 5 days, and the official intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. The small size of the circulation and its projected motion away from Mexico does not require tropical storm warnings or watches at this time. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast track would bring stronger winds closer to the coast, which would require the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Regardless of the winds, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and flash flooding will be possible in mountainous areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.4N 104.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.4N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.4N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 17.3N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 17.4N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 17.9N 108.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart