823 WTPZ42 KNHC 060844 TCDEP2 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018 The cloud tops surrounding Olivia's 25 n mi diameter eye have cooled somewhat over the past several hours, indicative of a little strengthening. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, which is a blend of lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective SATCON and ADT estimates. Olivia will soon be moving over somewhat cooler SSTs and into a drier mid-level air mass. This should lead to gradual weakening over the next few days. The official intensity forecast is very close to the simple and corrected intensity consensus models, IVCN and HCCA. Olivia has a fairly large eye with limited banding features, but the numerical guidance indicates a low likelihood that the system could become an annular hurricane. Nonetheless, if that transition were to occur, Olivia would likely maintain a higher intensity for the next few days than indicated here. No significant changes have been made to the NHC track prediction or forecast reasoning. Olivia continues moving west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. A well-defined deep-layer ridge should remain in place to the north of the hurricane for the next several days, and this ridge is expected to build westward during the forecast period. As a result, Olivia should gradually turn from its west-northwestward heading to a westward course by the weekend. The track guidance models remain in excellent agreement on this scenario. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus and the latest ECMWF prediction. This is essentially an update of the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 18.1N 125.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch