441 
WTPZ42 KNHC 060238
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018

Olivia continues to have a large and distinct eye, but the
surrounding convection has not changed in the past 6 h or so. Dvorak
numbers are steady, and a blend of objective and subjective
estimates yield an initial intensity of 85 kt.  The shear is not a
problem for Olivia since it is forecast to remain low through the
entire 5-day period.  However, in about a day, the SSTs along
Olivia's track will decrease resulting in a gradual weakening
of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, and follows the intensity consensus.

There has been no change in track, and Olivia is still moving
toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 12 kt. The subtropical
ridge is anchored north of the hurricane, and this flow pattern
should continue to steer Olivia on the same general track for he
next 5 days.  By the end of the forecast period, the ridge is
expected to expand westward, forcing the cyclone to move westward.
Track models are in an excellent agreement, and the guidance
envelope remains tightly clustered for the next 3 days.  After
that time, although the envelope widens a little bit, models still
indicate a westward-moving cyclone.  The NHC forecast is in the
middle of the envelope and very close to the multi-model aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 17.7N 124.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 18.2N 126.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 18.9N 129.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 21.8N 139.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila