302 WTPZ42 KNHC 051442 TCDEP2 Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018 Olivia is still slowly weakening, with a continued erosion of the eyewall convection in the northwestern quadrant. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 90-100 kt range, and the initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt given the decay in the cloud pattern since the previous advisory. Olivia is currently experiencing moderate easterly shear, but the guidance suggests this should decrease during the next 12-24 h. Therefore, the major influences on the intensity should be gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and entrainment of dry air. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Olivia should weaken through the forecast period, and based on this the new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast. There is a chance that Olivia could weaken faster than currently forecast during the first 24 h if the current convective trend continues. The initial motion is 280/11. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only minor adjustments to the forecast track. A building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific to the north of Olivia should induce a general west-northwestward motion with increasing forward speed during the next several days. Toward the end of the forecast period, global models continue to show a stronger ridge that would turn Olivia back to a westward motion. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, although the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean show a motion to the north of the other models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 17.1N 122.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 19.0N 129.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.9N 132.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.0N 142.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 22.5N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven