273 
WTPZ42 KNHC 031440
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018

There has been a pretty significant change with Olivia overnight,
with the center either moving into or reforming southward under the
central dense overcast.  Microwave data indicate that a developing
inner core is present as well, along with a notable increase in
curved banding.  Subjective Dvorak estimates have risen to 55 kt,
which agrees well with the latest CIMSS-SATCON estimates, so the
initial wind speed is raised to that value.

While the cyclone remains over warm water for the next couple of
days, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, which should keep
the intensification rates of the cyclone in check, along with some
mid-level dry air.  Slow strengthening seems most likely, and the
official forecast is raised from the previous one, mostly due to the
higher initial intensity.  It should be noted that the corrected-
consensus guidance is even higher, so the intensity forecast could
be conservative.  Olivia should move over more marginal waters in a
few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated at long range.

Olivia appears to be moving westward at about 6 kt, but this is
pretty uncertain due to the recent center jump.  The storm should
move faster toward the west and eventually toward the west-
northwest during the next several days as it encounters a strong
ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  Almost all of the guidance is
south of the previous model cycle, which is consistent with a
stronger cyclone feeling the effects of a deep-layer ridge, so the
latest NHC forecast is shifted in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 16.5N 114.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 16.6N 117.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 16.9N 119.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 17.3N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 18.6N 126.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake