930 WTPZ42 KNHC 030239 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Olivia remains sheared, however the deep convection has inched a little closer to the center this evening. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 45 kt, respectively. Those estimates, along with the earlier ASCAT data, support maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to remain under the influence of moderate northeasterly shear during the next several days, however, most of the intensity guidance insists on some intensification while the system moves over warm waters. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous advisory through 24 hours, but it is similar to the earlier forecast by showing Olivia attaining hurricane status in a couple of days. There is a large difference between the latest statistical guidance and the dynamical hurricane models, with the latter being much more aggressive in strengthening Olivia. Given the current structure of the storm and the lower statistical guidance, the NHC forecast splits the difference and is close to the consensus guidance. Later in the period cooler waters and a more stable airmass should cause the system to weaken. Olivia is moving slowly west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous NHC advisory. The tropical storm should turn westward as a ridge builds to the north of the system within the next couple of days. After midweek, Olivia should turn back toward the west-northwest as it reaches the western portion of the ridge. There continues to be some spread in the track guidance, and the NHC forecast is once again near the model consensus to account for the differences. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.1N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 17.3N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 17.8N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 18.0N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 19.3N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 20.8N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 22.3N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown