407 WTPZ42 KNHC 022039 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Olivia remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center located to the north and northeast of the large area of deep convection. Recent ASCAT data revealed a large area of 35-40 kt winds over the southeastern portion of Olivia's circulation, and is the basis for the initial wind speed of 40 kt. The global models suggest that the northeasterly shear over the cyclone will not abate as quickly as previous indicated, and much of the intensity guidance shows less strengthening than before. The NHC wind speed forecast has been lowered to be close to the intensity consensus, but it is not as low as the statistical guidance in order to maintain consistency with the previous official forecast. Olivia is foreast to reach cooler waters around day 4 and the tropical cyclone should weaken by that time. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt. Olivia should turn westward as a large ridge builds to the north of the system within the next couple of days. After midweek, Olivia should turn back toward the west-northwest as it reaches the western portion of the ridge. The dynamical model guidance generally agrees with this overall scenario, but there is cross-track spread regarding how much latitude the system gains over the next couple of days. The NHC track is near the various consensus aids and the GFS ensemble mean, but it is not as far north as the latest run of the ECMWF that takes Olivia more northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.0N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 20.6N 128.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 22.3N 134.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown