172 
WTPZ42 KNHC 020231
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Satellite data indicate that the cyclone remains elongated from
northeast to southwest with the low-level center estimated to be on
the northeastern side of the main area of deep convection.  Even
though the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that the
system could be a tropical storm, the initial wind speed is held at
30 kt since the structure of the depression is not well organized.
This wind speed estimate is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt.  The models
insist that the cyclone will slow down during the next day or two
while it lies to the south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
After that time, the subtropical ridge is expected to build to the
north of the depression, and that should cause it to move faster and
turn toward the west.  Only small changes were made to the previous
forecast track and it remains on the southern side of the guidance
envelope in the short term, as many of the models show the
depression turning abruptly northward possibly due to the
reformation of the center.  For now, the NHC track forecast assumes
that the center will not reform, but northward adjustments could be
required if that does occur.

The northeasterly shear that is currently affecting the depression
is expected to let up some during the next couple of days, which
should allow the system to at least gradually strengthen.  However,
the intensity models are less aggressive this cycle, leaving the
previous forecast at the upper bound of the guidance envelope at
the longer forecast times.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one, except a little lower at the
longer range to trend toward the latest guidance.  The confidence in
the intensity forecast is low because of the run-to-run variability
in the model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 15.2N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 15.7N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 16.6N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 16.7N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 16.8N 119.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi