784 
WTPZ42 KNHC 080229
TCDEP2

Hurricane John Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

The eye of John passed a short distance east of Socorro Island a
few hours ago, and it is estimated that the radius of maximum winds
narrowly missed the island.  An automated station at Socorro
recorded a wind gust to 70 kt at 2300 UTC.  Although John's inner
core convection has weakened somewhat, Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an intensity of 90 kt for
this advisory.  Although John should remain over warm waters for
the next day or so, the deterioration of its convection suggests it
is now in a somewhat less favorable atmospheric environment, so no
further strengthening is expected.  The official intensity forecast
is somewhat above the model consensus for the first 1-2 days and
near the consensus thereafter.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward or 315/9 kt.  The
hurricane should continue to move northwestward along the
southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge for the next couple of
days.  Later, the weakening cyclone is likely to turn to the left
and eventually move westward following the low-level flow.  The new
official forecast is in close agreement with the previous one and
much of the track model guidance, which remains in good agreement.

Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula, an eastward shift of the forecast
track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field
of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds close to
the west coast of the peninsula.  In addition, a surge of moisture
around John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally
heavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next
couple of days.  Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the
Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 19.2N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 27.0N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0000Z 27.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch