010 WTPZ42 KNHC 060859 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018 The convective pattern of John has become significantly better organized during the past several hours, with a large central dense overcast forming and cloud top temperatures to -85C. A 0706Z GPM microwave pass shows the rapid development of an inner core since the previous pass 6 hours ago, along with impressive curved banding features. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates gave 45 kt at 0600 UTC, but given the increase in organization since that time, the advisory wind speed is set to 50 kt. All systems are go for the rapid intensification of John in an environment of very warm SSTs, high mid-level moisture and low wind shear. With the inner core formation, John will likely strengthen quickly until it reaches cooler waters after 48 hours. The various rapid intensification aids are about as high as they get, roughly 60 to 90 percent depending on the threshold, increasing the confidence in the forecast. Thus the new NHC wind speed prediction is raised from the previous one, and calls for rapid intensification through 48 hours. It should be noted that even though the NHC forecast is rather bullish, the corrected consensus aids, the SHIPS and LGEM models all show an even higher peak intensity. The GPM pass helped set the initial motion at 300/7 kt, somewhat to the left of the previous estimate. Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement that John should move northwestward soon at an increasing forward speed toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. While some interaction with TS Ileana is anticipated, the much larger John should dominate, leading to perhaps a temporary slowdown. The latest NHC forecast is shifted to the west in the first couple of days, following the trend of the model guidance, but ends up very close to the previous forecast at day 5. The UKMET is significantly farther west, perhaps due to it having the two tropical cyclones analyzed with nearly the same size, and little weight is placed on that model for the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.6N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.3N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.5N 110.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 18.8N 111.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 24.5N 119.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake