360 WTPZ42 KNHC 052039 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 The low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico has become better defined today and the associated deep convection has enough organization to classify the system as a tropical depression, the twelfth tropical cyclone of the 2018 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is northwestward at about 6 kt. The track and intensity forecast for the depression is complicated due to the close proximity of Tropical Storm Ileana to its east-southeast. Somewhat surprisingly, however, the track guidance is in relatively good agreement on a general northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next several days. Since the depression is larger than Ileana, most of the global models suggest that Ileana will move around the northeastern portion of the new tropical cyclone's circulation and weaken and dissipate. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope between the slower ECMWF solution, and the faster GFS, HWRF, and HMON tracks. The depression is currently over very warm SSTs, within low shear, and a moist atmosphere. These factors suggest that the depression will steadily strengthen and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive in intensifying the system. The NHC forecast is slightly more conservative during the first 36 h since the system is still quite broad and lacks an inner core. Regardless, the NHC forecast brings the system to hurricane strength within 36 h, and shows a peak intensity of 90 kt in 3 days, which is in agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. Cool waters and less favorable thermodynamic conditions should lead to steady to rapid weakening late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.6N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown