000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060234
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018

The satellite appearance of Fabio has continued to degrade, as the
system is now comprised mostly of a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds with disorganized convection in the southeastern quadrant.
The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of
various satellite intensity estimates.  The center of Fabio is
approaching sea-surface temperatures near 20C and this should cause
continued weakening, with the convection completely dissipating in
the next 12-24 h if not sooner.  The resulting remnant low is
expected to persist through 96 h before degenerating into a trough.

The initial motion is 295/13.  Fabio or its remnants should move
generally west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge.  After that time, the system
should turn more westward as the low-level tradewind flow becomes
the dominant steering mechanism.  The new forecast track is an
update of the previous track that lies close to the consensus
models.

Although Fabio is weakening, swells generated by the cyclone will
affect the coasts of southern California and the Baja California
Peninsula for the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 21.2N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 22.1N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 23.1N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 23.8N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 24.3N 136.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z 25.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z 26.0N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven