000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041433
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018

Fabio's eye has shrunk and become somewhat distorted while still
being surrounded by very cold cloud tops.  Mainly because of the
degradation of the eye, Dvorak estimates have decreased slightly,
and the initial intensity is set at 85 kt based on a blend of the
numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  The northwest half
of Fabio's large circulation is now over sub-26C waters, and colder
waters and a stable environment will likely induce a fast weakening
rate over the next two days.  Fabio is forecast to weaken to a
tropical storm in about 24 hours and then degenerate into a remnant
low by day 3.  The updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows
the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) guidance, and it is
a little lower than the previous forecast during the first 48 hours.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt.  Fabio will
be reaching the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge soon,
allowing the cyclone to turn slightly northwestward through 48
hours.  Once it becomes a remnant low, Fabio should then turn back
toward the west-northwest and slow down within the lower-level
trade wind flow.  There is still not much spread in the track
guidance, and much like the intensity forecast, the official track
forecast is closest to the HCCA and FSSE guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 17.2N 120.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 18.2N 122.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 19.6N 124.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 22.5N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 24.7N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z 26.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z 28.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg