000
WTPZ42 KNHC 040831
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018

The eye continues to be distinct, but the convective tops are
warming and the area coverage is shrinking.  An average of the TAFB
and SAB Dvorak T-numbers supports an initial intensity of 90 kt.
Fabio's core is still moving over 26 or 27 degree C waters, but the
northern circulation is already encountering much cooler waters. On
this basis, NHC forecast weakening, and Fabio is anticipated to be a
remnant low in 3 days when its core moves over 20 degree C waters.

There has been no change in track, and Fabio continues to move
west-northwestward at 13 kt.  The hurricane is expected to remain
steered by flow around the southwestern periphery of a persistent
mid-level ridge.  By the end of the forecast period, when Fabio is
anticipated to be a weak and shallow system, the cyclone is
predicted to slow down as it becomes more influenced by the
low-level flow.  The NHC forecast continue to be near the middle of
the guidance envelope and very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 17.0N 119.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 18.0N 121.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 19.5N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 21.0N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 22.5N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 25.0N 132.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 27.0N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z 29.0N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila