000
WTPZ42 KNHC 040233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018

The intensification trend of Fabio appears to have ended.  Several
hours ago, satellite images showed a ring of cold cloud tops
surrounding a distinct eye.  However, more recent data indicate that
the structure of Fabio has deteriorated with a pronounced dry slot
evident on the east side of the circulation.  Blending the latest
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin support holding the initial wind speed at 95 kt, but this
could be a little generous.

Fabio is currently over marginally warm 27 degree C waters, but it
is headed for much cooler waters during the next several days. These
unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable airmass
and an increase in southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening
through the forecast period.  Fabio is forecast to weaken below
hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours, and it is predicted to become
a remnant low by 96 hours.  The intensity models are in fair
agreement, and the NHC forecast lies between the HCCA and ICON
consensus aids.

The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 13 kt.  There
is no change to the track forecast reasoning.  Fabio is expected to
continue west-northwestward to northwestward at about the same
forward speed during the next few days while it moves on the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  By the end of the
forecast period, when Fabio is a weak and shallow system, the
cyclone is predicted to slow down as it becomes more influenced by
the low-level flow.  The track models remain in good agreement, and
the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 16.5N 117.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 17.4N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 18.9N 122.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 20.4N 124.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 22.0N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 24.8N 131.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 26.7N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z 28.1N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi