000
WTPZ42 KNHC 032031
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018

The overall satellite presentation of Fabio has continued to
improve today.  The eye has become better defined and warmed while
the ring of cold clouds tops has wrapped more around the center
since the previous advisory.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB
and SAB are consensus T5.0s while objective Dvorak T-numbers from
UW-CIMSS are T5.9.  Bases on these data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 95 kt.  Fabio has a little time left over warm
waters in which to reach major hurricane status, but by early
Wednesday the hurricane will be moving over cooler SSTs and into
less favorable thermodynamic conditions, which should cause
the hurricane to begin to weaken.  A more rapid rate of filling is
forecast to begin by late Wednesday and Fabio is forecast to weaken
to a tropical storm within 48 h, and degenerate into a remnant low
by day 4.  The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Fabio is moving west-northwestward around 13 kt.  There has been no
change to the track forecast reasoning since the previous advisory.
The hurricane should move west-northwestward to northwestward
around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico.  The track guidance is in excellent
agreement and the new NHC foreast is essentially an update of the
previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 15.8N 116.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 16.5N 118.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 17.7N 120.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 19.3N 123.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 20.9N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 23.8N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 27.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown