000 WTPZ42 KNHC 031443 TCDEP2 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018 The structure of Fabio has improved since the issuance of the previous advisory. Just prior to 1200 UTC a ring of -70C and colder cloud tops wrapped entirely around the warming eye, and an AMSR-2 pass around 0900 UTC indicated that the inner-core convection had continued to contract and become more symmetric. Since that time, the eyewall structure has become less clear on IR imagery, and its unclear if this is a temporary fluctuation or an indication that Fabio is already nearing its peak. The initial intensity has been raised to 90 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Fabio is beginning to run out of time for further intensification. The hurricane should remain within a warm SST, low wind shear environment for the next 12 to 24 hours. At least some modest strengthening seems possible over that time, and Fabio is still forecast to become a major hurricane later today, however it is worth noting that all of the intensity guidance indicates that Fabio may already be near its peak intensity. Beginning tomorrow, the hurricane will be moving over much cooler SSTs and into a more stable thermodynamic environment. Steady to rapid weakening is inevitable, eventually causing Fabio to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance at 12 h, but very close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids after that. The hurricane has continued to move toward the west-northwest at around 13 kt. All of the dynamical models agree that Fabio will continue moving west-northwestward to northwestward along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north for the next several days. Very little change has been made to the official track forecast which remains near the various multi-model consensus track aids, near the middle of the tightly-clustered guidance envelope through day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.2N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.1N 117.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.2N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.2N 124.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 23.1N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 25.5N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky