000
WTPZ42 KNHC 030832
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
300 AM MDT Tue Jul 03 2018

The eye has been observed intermittently on conventional imagery
during the past few hours, and the convection surrounding the
eye has not changed much. In fact, Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB
and SAB are the same as 6 hours ago, so we are keeping the same
initial intensity of 80 kt in this advisory.

Although Fabio has not intensified since the last advisory, all the
factors are favorable for the hurricane to do so. Consequently, the
NHC forecast still shows a peak intensity of 100 kt within the next
24 hours. After that time, a large portion of the circulation will
be affected by cooler waters, and gradual weakening should begin.
None of the models bring Fabio to 100 kt any more in the 06 UTC run,
but they all agree in a weakening trend after 24 hours.

Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 13 kt.
Since the steering pattern is well established, the track forecast
is relatively straightforward.  The hurricane is expected to
continue moving toward the west-northwest during the next several
days steered by the flow around a persistent subtropical ridge to
the north.  The NHC forecast is in the middle of the very tightly
packed guidance envelope, and also leaning toward the HFIP Corrected
Consensus HCCA model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 15.1N 114.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 15.8N 116.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 18.2N 121.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 19.7N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 23.0N 128.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 25.8N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 27.0N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila