000
WTPZ42 KNHC 022033
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Fabio's cloud pattern has continued to improve over the past several
hours.  A banding eye-like feature has appeared in visible imagery,
but it is not yet evident in IR channels.  A recent ASCAT pass
around 1730 UTC indicated that the cyclone remains fairly
asymmetric, but the inner-core has tightened somewhat.  The
corresponding AMSU microwave imagery at that time indicated that the
western eyewall was somewhat open, but the latest visible imagery
suggests that the eyewall may be finally closing off, despite the
presence of a dry slot that wraps around the western and southern
portions of the inner core.  A blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB supported an initial intensity of 70 kt at 1800 UTC, and
given the improvement of the cloud pattern since that time, the
initial intensity has been raised to 75 kt.

The intensity guidance is dramatically different from 24 hours ago,
and now most of the guidance keeps Fabio below major hurricane
strength.  The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low for at
least the next 3 days, but the hurricane only has about 24 hours
left to strengthen over warm SSTs.  Beginning around 36 hours, quick
weakening will occur as it becomes embedded within an unfavorable
thermodynamic environment.  Given that the inner core of the
hurricane finally appears to be contracting, the forecast is still
on the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, close to
the DSHP forecast and similar to the previous advisory.  After that
time, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids
through day 5.

The earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the center was a little north
of the previous estimates, and this has since been confirmed by the
presence of the banding eye.  The track forecast has therefore been
adjusted northward accordingly, but otherwise is very similar to the
previous advisory.  Fabio is still forecast to move west-northwest
to northwestward over the next 4 to 5 days along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The models remain in fairly good
agreement on the track forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the
various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.8N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 14.4N 113.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 15.5N 115.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 16.6N 118.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 17.9N 121.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 20.8N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 24.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky