000 WTPZ42 KNHC 012032 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018 300 PM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Fabio's presentation continues to improve on visible, IR, and microwave imagery. Although a pronounced dry slot is still present just north and east of the low-level center, convection appears to be increasing, suggesting that the cyclone is getting closer to closing off its inner core. The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak fix from TAFB and an earlier SATCON estimate of 53 kt. The statistical intensity guidance continues to forecast a remarkable rate of intensification for Fabio over the next two days. The DSHP and LGEM models both bring Fabio to near or above category 5 strength within 48 hours, while the SHIPS RII and DTOPS models suggest there is a greater than 50 percent probability of an increase of 40 kt over the next 24 hours. On the other hand, the dynamical HWRF and HMON models show only limited strengthening. Given that those two models both missed the previous two rapid intensification cases this season, and the fact that the warm SSTs and very low shear seem indicative of rapid intensification, the forecast favors the statistical models, and shows Fabio becoming a major hurricane on Tuesday. By 72 h, Fabio will be moving over cooler waters and into a much more stable environment which should cause rapid weakening to begin. Despite the very high rate of intensification shown by the NHC forecast, it is actually lower than the HCCA and FSSE models, and lies between those and the simple intensity consensus IVCN. By the end of the forecast period, the forecast is close to all of the intensity consensus aids. The initial motion estimate is 290/11. A late-arriving WindSat pass showed that the center of Fabio was a little north of the previous estimate, so the best track and forecast have been adjusted slightly in that direction. Otherwise, no change has been made to the track forecast or reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north should keep the cyclone moving west-northwestward at a similar forward speed through most of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast remains near the various consensus aids, and falls in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.4N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.9N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.5N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 15.2N 116.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 17.2N 122.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky