000 WTPZ42 KNHC 010843 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with Tropical Depression Seven-E has become better organized, with very cold cloud tops near and west of the center along with a large area of outer banding. A recent GMI overpass suggests that the system has not yet developed a tight inner core. However, the various satellite intensity estimates are now 35-45 kt. Thus, the cyclone is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio with a possibly conservative initial intensity of 35 kt. The initial motion is 285/11. The track guidance is in good agreement that Fabio should move west-northwestward on the southwest side of the subtropical ridge for the next several days, with a turn toward the northwest near the end of the forecast period. There has been little change in the guidance since the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast that lies near or just north of the model consensus. Fabio should be over warm water and in an environment of light vertical wind shear for the next 72 h or so, and steady to rapid strengthening is expected during that time. There remains some spread in the guidance, with the HWRF model continuing to show less intensification than the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models. The new intensity forecast will again trend above that of the previous forecast, with steady strengthening during the first 24 h followed by rapid strengthening from 24-48 h. It should be noted that the forecast intensities through 72 h are lower than the SHIPS and LGEM models, and they are in best overall agreement with the HCCA consensus model. After 72 h, Fabio should move over steadily decreasing sea surface temperatures and weaken quickly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.6N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 12.0N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 12.7N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 13.3N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.0N 114.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven