000 WTPZ42 KNHC 010255 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018 The depression is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convective bands have been gaining curvature, but remain limited to the southeast of the estimated center. Since the Dvorak classifications are unchanged at 2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, the initial wind speed is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also consistent with the latest ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Even though the system is currently not very strong, the circulation is quite large with the outer bands extending about 300 n mi from the center. The system is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. This general motion is expected during the next several days as a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the system remains the primary steering feature. The track models are in very good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC prediction. The cyclone is expected to remain out to sea through the forecast period. Environmental conditions are quite ideal for the depression to strengthen during the next few days with SSTs of 28-29C, vertical wind shear less than 10 kt, and a fairly moist low- to mid-level air mass. The models respond to these favorable conditions by unanimously showing the depression becoming a hurricane within the next few days. However, the models disagree on how strong the system might get before it reaches cooler waters in a few days. The SHIPS and LGEM models show the system reaching major hurricane strength while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models are notably weaker. Regardless of how strong the system becomes, the strengthening trend should end shortly after 3 days when the cyclone is expected to move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one and is close to the HCCA and ICON consensus models. This forecast is slightly below the models in the short term as the large size of the system could make the initial strengthening process more gradual. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.3N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 11.7N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.4N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 13.1N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 13.7N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 15.4N 117.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 17.8N 122.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi