000
WTPZ42 KNHC 091433
TCDEP2

Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018

Recent microwave data indicates that the cloud pattern of Aletta
continues to lose organization due to southerly vertical wind
shear, with the remains of the eye located near the south edge of
the main convective area.  The initial intensity is reduced to a
possibly generous 85 kt based on a combination of subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates.

Rapid weakening should continue due to a combination of shear,
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and
entrainment of dry air.  Aletta is currently forecast to drop below
hurricane strength in less than 24 h, weaken to a depression by 48
h, and subsequently degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h.  The new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the tightly clustered
intensity guidance.

The initial motion is now 295/5.  The cyclone should move generally
northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge
over northwestern Mexico during the next day or so.  After Aletta
weakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system, it should turn
westward, and then southwestward, in the low-level trade wind flow.
In contrast to the last advisory, the guidance envelope for this
advisory has has shifted somewhat to the north.  The new forecast
track is similar to, but just north of the previous forecast, and it
lies to the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the
group of consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 16.4N 113.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 16.9N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 17.4N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 17.0N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven