000 WTPZ42 KNHC 080843 TCDEP2 Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018 Aletta's impressive satellite presentation has not changed much since the 6Z special advisory. Thus the initial wind speed will stay 105 kt, which is very similar to a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. The hurricane has less than a day to strengthen before the environment becomes less hospitable, with a notable increase in shear and decrease in water temperatures forecast this weekend. These conditions will likely cause significant weakening of Aletta over the weekend, with rapid weakening predicted by Sunday. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, but has been lowered at long range in accordance with the latest guidance. The GFS and ECMWF suggest Aletta will lose deep convection by day 4, so the remnant low timing has been moved up to that day. The hurricane has been moving slowly at about 5 kt during the night, with a motion toward the west-northwest or northwest. As the shear increases on Saturday, Aletta should turn a little more to the northwest as the deep circulation feels the southwesterly flow associated with a broad upper trough over the eastern Pacific. By Monday, the cyclone should turn more to the west-northwest and then westward by the end of the forecast due to Aletta becoming a more shallow system and being steered by a low-level ridge. One notable outlier is the ECMWF model, which moves Aletta more westward almost immediately, resulting in a much farther south track than the other models. This model has had a southward bias for this storm and is weighted less it normally would be in this advisory package. The new forecast is close to the previous one, which also put less weight on the ECMWF solution, and lies near the evenly weighted track consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.8N 110.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.1N 111.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.7N 112.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 18.2N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake