000
WTPZ42 KNHC 202044
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Paine consists of a well-defined circulation of low-level clouds,
as all of the deep convection dissipated around 10-11Z. The initial
intensity has been set to 30 kt based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Since it is
unlikely that deep convection will return given the continued strong
shear and a track over very cool waters, Paine will likely be
declared a post-tropical remnant low tonight.  The remnant low will
slowly spin down during the next day or so and should dissipate over
the Baja California peninsula in 36 to 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 005/13.  Paine's track should
gradually bend northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
States, and the shallow cyclone will lose some forward speed during
that time.  The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous
one and is again close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 27.2N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 28.6N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1800Z 29.7N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0600Z 30.9N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan