000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200243
TCDEP2

HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
800 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

Paine is quickly losing organization this evening.  A very timely
2334 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass shows that the low- and mid-level
centers are beginning to decouple due to increasingly south-
southwesterly shear.  As a result, subjective Dvorak data T-numbers
have started to decrease, and the initial wind speed has been
reduced to 70 kt for this advisory.  Paine will be moving over much
cooler SSTs and into a higher shear environment during the next day
or so.  This should cause rapid weakening, and Paine is expected to
become a tropical storm by early Tuesday, and degenerate into a
remnant low within 36 hours.

Paine appears to be slowing down, with an initial motion estimate
of 345/11 kt.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from
before, with the tropical cyclone moving northward, then north-
northeastward between a deep-layer ridge to its northeast
and an upper-level low to its northwest.  As Paine weakens and
becomes a shallow system, it should decelerate when it comes
under the influence of weaker low-level flow west of the Baja
California peninsula.  The track models are in good agreement,
and the NHC foreast is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 23.8N 116.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 25.3N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 27.3N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 28.7N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z 29.6N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown