000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231440
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Kay has become a convectionless swirl of low clouds over sea surface
temperatures of less than 25C.  Unless the convection makes an
unexpected return, the cyclone should degenerate to a remnant low
pressure area later today.  All of the global models now show the
remnant low dissipating in less than two days, so the official
forecast follows this scenario.

Kay turned more to the right after the scatterometer overpass
mentioned in the previous advisory, and the initial motion is now
295/7.  A turn back toward the west is likely before the system
dissipates completely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 22.7N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 23.1N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1200Z 23.3N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven