000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230851
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016

The coverage of deep convection has been decreasing during the last
several hours, and only a small amount remains to the northwest of
the estimated center of Kay.  A pair of ASCAT passes from a few
hours ago showed maximum winds near 30 kt, and based on that data
Kay has been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The
depression is currently moving over SSTs near 25-deg-C and it is
headed for even cooler waters during the next couple of days.  These
cool SSTs combined with the continued influence of dry and stable
air should cause Kay to degenerate to a remnant low within the next
24 hours. All of the global models show the remnant low dissipating
in a little more than 2 days, and the official track forecast
follows that guidance.

The center of Kay has been challenging to locate in geostationary
satellite images, but the ASCAT data and a recent WindSat overpass
indicate that the system has been moving nearly due westward
during the past 12 to 24 hours.  A continued westward motion in the
low-level trade wind flow is expected until the system dissipates.
The NHC track forecast lies on the southern edge of the guidance and
is adjusted a little to the south of the previous prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 22.0N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1800Z 22.4N 124.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0600Z 22.4N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi