000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230235
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
800 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

Most of the deep convection associated with Kay has dissipated,
likely due to the continued entrainment of stable air and marginal
SSTs.  However, visible satellite images showed a well-defined
low cloud circulation with tightly curved bands.  The current
intensity is kept at 35 kt following a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.
Kay is crossing the 25.5 deg C SST isotherm and will continue to
move into a stable and increasingly dry air mass.  These unfavorable
factors should lead to weakening, and Kay is likely to degenerate
into a remnant low in 36 hours.  Unless deep convection makes a
comeback, however, this event may occur sooner than that.

The motion remains about the same, or 270/7 kt.  There is basically
no change to the track forecast reasoning.  Kay, or its remnant low,
should continue to move on a generally westward heading to the south
of a mid-level ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and not too different from the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 22.0N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 22.3N 119.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 22.6N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 22.8N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch