000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220841
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
200 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

Deep convection associated with Kay has decreased a little in both
intensity and coverage during the last several hours, but the
cyclone is maintaining a small central dense overcast feature.  The
Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB are still 3.0/45 kt, and the
initial wind speed is held at that value for this advisory.  Kay is
nearing the 26-deg-C isotherm, and it will likely cross into those
cooler waters later today.  These unfavorable oceanic conditions
combined with a drier air mass along the expected track should cause
a slow decay during the next couple of days.   Kay will likely
degenerate into a remnant low pressure area when it moves over water
temperatures below 25 deg C in 36 to 48 hours.  All of the global
models show the system opening into a trough by Wednesday night, and
the official forecast follows that guidance.

Kay continues to move west-northwestward to northwestward at about
7 kt as it is being steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast.
A gradual turn to the left is expected during the next couple of
days as Kay becomes shallower and is steered by the low-level trade
wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
and lies fairly close to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 22.2N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.5N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 22.8N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 23.2N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 23.5N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi