000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190845
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
300 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

The center continues to be on the edge or very near a large area of
developing convection. Dvorak T-number estimates remain below
tropical storm strength, but a recent ASCAT-B pass around 0500 UTC
showed a few wind vectors of 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant. On
this basis, the depression has been upgraded to tropical storm
status. Kay continues to be affected by northeasterly shear, but
conditions are still favorable for slight strengthening during the
next 24 hours before the cyclone encounters a more stable
environment. After that time, gradual weakening should begin.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 315/06. Kay is embedded
within light steering currents around a weak ridge over Mexico, and
this pattern is forecast to change little. Most of the track models
keep Kay moving northwestward with a gradual bend to the west as the
cyclones weakens. The exception is the GFS which brings a very weak
system close to Baja California. This GFS solution does not appear
to be realistic at this time. The NHC forecast follows the bulk of
the guidance, shifting a little bit to the left from the previous
NHC forecast and following the multimodel consensus TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 18.4N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 19.1N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 20.0N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 20.6N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 21.0N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 21.7N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0600Z 22.5N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila