000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230832 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 300 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016 The cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. Microwave data continue to show that the low-level center is on the northern edge of the deep convection due to shear. An average of the latest satellite intensity estimates indicates that the winds remain at 55 kt at this time. The environment continues to be favorable for strengthening, and only a small decrease in the shear should result in Frank becoming a hurricane. In fact, NHC forecasts this to occur within the next 24 hours. Intensity guidance is not aggressive, and most of the models suggest that Frank will reach its peak intensity of around 70 kt in about 36 hours with weakening after that time. The NHC forecast follows that guidance trend. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the flow around a strong subtropical ridge extending from the western United States westward across the Pacific. This steering pattern is forecast to persist, and will force Frank to move on a general west-northwest to west track during the next several days. Since the track models are tightly clustered during the next 2 to 3 days, there is high confidence that the cyclone will continue on the same general track. Frank will be passing well south of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours and be near Socorro Island later today. The NHC forecast is very close to the latest multi-model consensus. Swells associated with Frank are probably already affecting the coasts of the southern Baja California peninsula and the state of Sinaloa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 18.5N 109.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.0N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 19.7N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 20.2N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 20.7N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 20.7N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 21.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila