000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220838
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
300 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with
deep convection near the center and a fairly well-established
upper-level outflow. However, Dvorak estimates as well as data from
a recent ASCAT pass indicate that the winds remain at 45 kt.

The cyclone is forecast to move over warm waters and within a
favorable shear environment. Given these conditions, Frank is
expected to intensify and become a hurricane over the weekend. The
NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and is consistent with
the intensity guidance. The chances of rapid intensification
provided by the SHIPS model is only 20 percent. By the end of the
forecast period, Frank should encounter cooler waters and begin to
weaken.

Satellite fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving toward the
northwest or 310 degrees at 10 kt. Global models amplify the
subtropical ridge controlling the motion of Frank, and this
steering pattern will likely force the cyclone on a general
west-northwest track with a decrease in forward speed. The track
model envelope shifted a little southward beyond 2 days, and
consequently, the NHC forecast was adjusted southward a little bit.
Although the forecast track keeps Frank well removed from Mexico,
interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should continue to monitor the progress of this cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 16.7N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 17.5N 107.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 18.3N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 19.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 19.6N 111.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 20.5N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 22.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila