000
WTPZ42 KNHC 301435
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

Visible and infrared imagery shows the exposed and small low-
level circulation of Marty with a slight burst of deep convection
along the northern side of the center.  The current intensity
is estimated to be 30 kt based mainly on continuity from the
previous advisory.  Nearly 20 kt of southwesterly vertical shear,
associated with an upper-level low near 19N 109W, is currently
affecting Marty.  Global models forecast at least moderate
southwesterly shear to continue over the cyclone for the next few
days.  Therefore, the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant
low within the next 24 hours, and to dissipate a couple of days
later.  The official intensity forecast is close to the model
consensus.

The depression continues to move slowly westward, or 275/5 kt.
Most of the model guidance shows the cyclone continuing to move
westward for the next few days.  A breakdown of the mid-level
ridging over Baja California and northwestern Mexico should allow
for a more northward component of motion by 72 hours, if the system
still exists by that time.

Since the deep convection over land has diminished, expected
rainfall amounts have been decreased.  Also, since the cyclone is
weakening, the swell and high surf threats should decrease over the
next day or two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 16.2N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 16.3N 103.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 16.4N 104.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0000Z 16.5N 105.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1200Z 16.6N 106.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z 17.3N 109.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Gallina