000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260838
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015
200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2015

Ignacio continues to gradually strengthen. Deep convection has been
persisting mainly over the western half of the circulation and
recent microwave images show increased banding as well.  The Dvorak
classifications from all agencies have increased to T3.0/45 kt, and
the initial intensity is set at that value.

The tropical storm is currently in a generally favorable environment
of about 10 kt of southeasterly wind shear and over 29 deg C waters.
Since these conditions are not expected to change much during the
next few days, additional intensification appears likely.  Although
all of the intensity guidance agrees on the strengthening trend,
they disagree on the intensification rate.  The HWRF model shows
Ignacio strengthening fastest, while the SHIPS and LGEM models show
the cyclone gaining strength more gradually.  The NHC intensity
forecast is between those scenarios and in best agreement with
the intensity model consensus.  Some weakening is possible by the
end of the forecast period due to less favorable conditions.

The low-level center of the storm is difficult to locate.  Using
recent microwave images and continuity, the initial motion estimate
is 260/6 kt.  Mid-level ridging is expected to build to the north
and northeast of Ignacio during the next several days.  This pattern
should cause the cyclone to move a little faster westward today and
then west-northwestward on Thursday.  A continued west-northwestward
motion is expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close
to a consensus of the models with a little more weight on the ECMWF
solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 12.3N 134.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 12.3N 135.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 12.6N 137.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 13.5N 139.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 14.4N 140.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 15.8N 144.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 17.1N 147.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 18.3N 151.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi