000 WTPZ42 KNHC 252043 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015 The organization of the cyclone's cloud pattern has increased significantly since yesterday. The center of circulation appears to be near the eastern edge or barely underneath a small mass of deep convection instead of being exposed to the east. Satellite pictures also show increased banding, and low-cloud lines suggest a more vigorous circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB reflect the increase in organization, and the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is 265/05. A deep longwave trough over the eastern Pacific has temporarily weakened the mid-level subtropical ridge west of 130W, which has left the cyclone in a weak easterly steering flow. This synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next day or so, which should should allow the slow westward motion to continue. After 36 to 48 hours, the longwave trough over the eastern Pacific should lift out and the subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild westward into the central Pacific and cause Ignacio to move on a west-northwestward course. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the left and has been shifting toward the left during the past few cycles in response to the better handling of the strength of the subtropical ridge. The new track forecast is adjusted significantly to the left but not as far south as the multi-model consensus or the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means. The official track forecast places much less weight on the ECMWF solution that spuriously splits the mid-level vortex in 3 days time, which results in a northward jump in the track. On the large scale, global models show decreasing shear and enhanced lower to middle tropospheric moisture along the cyclone's path during the next 2 to 3 days while it moves over anomalously warm SSTs of 28 to 29 deg C. These favorable factors should lead to steady if not quick intensification, with the one limiting factor likely to be how quickly the cyclone can establish an inner core. The intensity forecast late in the period depends very much on where Ignacio is, and the divergence in the track guidance makes that intensity forecast after about 3 days of low confidence. A more southern track, as is now being shown in some of the guidance, could result in an even stronger cyclone than indicated. The official intensity forecast is increased again over the previous one and is close to, but below, the dynamical model guidance and the FSU Superensemble output that has consistently been higher than the statistical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 13.0N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 12.9N 134.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 12.9N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 13.2N 137.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 13.9N 139.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 15.4N 142.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 16.7N 146.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 18.1N 149.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain