000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251448 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015 The depression is exhibiting a sheared cloud pattern, with an asymmetric distribution of convection over the western semicircle of the cyclone's circulation. The cyclone's current appearance makes sense, given that SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS shear analyses are indicating moderate southeasterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 2.5, respectively. Although the depression's cloud pattern has become somewhat better organized since late yesterday, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt until there is more definitive proof that the system has reached tropical storm strength. The initial motion estimate is 270/05. A deep longwave trough over the eastern Pacific has temporarily weakened the subtropical ridge west of 130W, which has left the cyclone in a weak easterly steering flow. This synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next couple of days, which should maintain the slow westward motion. In about 48 hours, the subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild, which should result in a west-northwestward track with an increase in forward speed. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a 290- to 300-degree heading throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The official forecast is very near the previous one, even though the multi-model consensus has shifted toward the left. It has remained about the same mostly because the GFS solution, which keeps the cyclone very weak with a track far to the south, has largely been discounted. The shear currently affecting the depression is forecast to relax in about 24 hours and remain low through about 3 days. The decrease in shear, combined with anomalously warm waters of 28 to 29 deg C and a moistening environment along the cyclone's path, suggest that intensification is likely. The one limiting factor could be how long it takes for the inner core of the cyclone to become better organized. By early next week, the cyclone should encounter westerly shear associated with the mid-oceanic trough anchored near the longitude of Hawaii, and the shear should be strong enough to result in a leveling off of the intensity and then weakening. There is a significant difference between the statistical and dynamical intensity guidance this cycle. The official intensity forecast is above the previous one and close to, but a little lower than, the stronger dynamical model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 13.2N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 13.1N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 13.1N 134.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 13.4N 136.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 14.1N 138.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 15.8N 141.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 17.2N 145.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 18.7N 148.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain